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Say you and a friend are flipping a coin and the result has been “heads” nine times in a row. What are the odds that the same coin will produce the same result on the tenth flip? Without thinking about it too much, it’s easy to think that the odds of the coin landing on “heads” are lower because that result has occurred nine times in a row already. With a few moments’ thought, it’s clear that the odds of every flip of the coin are 50% for it to land on “heads” and 50% for it to land on “tails.” Each flip is a unique event. The coin itself has no memory of the results that have already occurred.

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Summary: Good competitive race here, but think Anaheim will like being back in class here after a couple of runs in Sydney G1s. He does take on the older horses, but the 2000m looks entirely suitable and a win would be much deserved. Hursley has been close-up without winning the past three races and has a strong record at Caulfield. Overberg has had a good campaign and was narrowly beaten last time. Gets to 2000m for the first time, but that doesn’t concern. Goathland made big strides last campaign and could show-up here first-up off a shortish spell.

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